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March Almanac: Stronger in Midterm Years

As part of the Best Six/Eight Months, March has historically been a solid performing month with DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000 all advancing more than 62% of the time with average gains ranging from 0.6% by NASDAQ to 1% by S&P 500. Over the recent 21-year period, March has tended to open well with gains accumulating over its first three trading days. Temporary weakness follows before moving modestly higher into mid-month through month’s end. Removing the highly volatile March’s of 2009 and 2020 from the recent 21-year chart has a minimal effect on the overall monthly pattern.

Normally a solid performing market month, March improves in midterm-election years. In midterm years March ranks: 4th best for DJIA and S&P 500 and 3rd best for NASDAQ and Russell 1000 while he small-cap Russell 2000 lands at second best. DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and 2000 have been up for five of the last six midterm Marchs.

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