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Best Consecutive Three-Month Span Begins With November

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down -22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record–only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA (since 1950) and NASDAQ (since 1971) month. November is best for S&P 500 (since 1950), Russell 1000 (since 1979) and Russell 2000 (since 1979). Average performance in all years ranges from 1.7% by S&P 500 to a solid 2.5% by Russell 2000.

In post-election years, November’s market prowess is essentially unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 14 of the last 17 post-election years since 1953 with an average gain of 1.9%. DJIA has been up 11-straight post-election year Novembers. DJIA’s last losing post-election year November was all the way back in 1973 (-14.0%, Arab oil embargo began 10/19/1973). S&P 500 has been up in 13 of the past 17 post-election years. Small caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 8 of the past 10 post-election years, averaging 2.8%. The only real blemishes in the November post-election year record are 1969 (DJIA -5.1%) and 1973 (DJIA -14.0%, OPEC oil embargo).

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